The leadership battle within the Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) has been widely documented and discussed over the last few years. What I find fascinating about this entire discussion is the general focus surrounding many of these articles. Perhaps it’s just me, but most seem to revolve around the potential candidates and their various chances depending on events that week. Too often we read about the seemingly never ending politicking and apparent jostling that takes place behind the scenes. I often wonder what His Excellency RGM makes of all this fuss.
You see, I think people seem to forget or ignore that replacing him isn’t as simple as replacing Yahoo’s CEO; and they’ve been plenty of those Yahoo CEOs in the last few years. People must be reminded and I will reiterate this now. RGM has now become an ideology – yes that’s right an ideology! To replace him without proper consultation requires careful and a calculated strategy that ensures that those involved won’t feel the wrath of the Zanu-PF (ZPF) machinery. Those who have felt it will testify, probably not publicly at first. These Zanu people aren’t stupid! To illustrate my point let me use one classic example. I don’t blame or accredit RGM alone for the infamous ‘land distribution programme’ by the way, but look at the effect it has had on other countries, particularly in other developing countries. We all seem to completely ignore the facts and take the easy route and blame RGM for the entire situation. Yet history books will show otherwise. What began as a social issue with the war veterans has now become a political statement. I am looking forward to a time when we are furnished with a plethora of books that clearly detail what actually happened during that difficult period. The truth surfaces eventually. Look at other countries like Brazil and Kenya who also started asking about their land and who actually owns it. This is part of the ideology I’m referring to. When I speak to other Africans and I have spoken to people from Cameroon and Guinea who openly admit that they support RGM in general but more importantly his stance on this land issue. So you see it won’t be as easy as we might think to replace ‘the old man’. Will Zanu find someone with this kind of effect? A few months ago I met a Brazilian and a Kenyan at some event I attended. I asked them about the land issue in their respective countries and their own opinions of RGM. Both of them admitted that RGM has had an effect on some people’s consciousness in their respective countries – some have already started asking who owns the land anyway. The RGM ideology is infectious it seems.
Here is an individual who continues to defy the sceptics. How many times has he supposedly died? RGM must find this extremely amusing. I know I would. However rumours of ill health continue to plague him but like most people I continue to wait to see how things unfold. As I mentioned earlier, the truth always turns up eventually. I often wonder how he really feels about the succession battle. I’m sure he’s already identified a suitable candidate. I’m also sure he hasn’t expressed his thoughts as openly as we would all like him to lest this creates even more divisions within the party. I recall in 2004/2005 hearing rumours of RGM endorsing Joyce Mujuru as his successor. I even heard rumours of a shift in strategy at the British Embassy in Harare and their willingness to soften their stance on Zimbabwe if Mujuru replaced RGM. Then again, these could have just been that – rumours.
One of main issues with this leadership battle is the constant fascination with the post Mugabe era. I’m sure we all wonder what a Zimbabwe without RGM would look like. Let us for a few minutes focus on the current status quo, So RGM has ruled Zimbabwe for over 30 years now. Ever wonder how and more importantly why? You see, my issue with some individuals when this touchy subject comes up is the apparent lack of objectivity. The discussions are often polluted with too many emotions for my liking. I am not being abrasive or insensitive but I want to focus on the facts for a few minutes.
The facts are, there were 2 main parties (headed by Joshua Nkomo and RGM) who both fought for the liberation of Zimbabwe. In fact Joshua Nkomo could have sealed the deal in 1977 with Kaunda’s help and perhaps things would have been different right now. One of these leaders eventually won the first Zimbabwean election and has ruled Zimbabwe ever since. This article is not intended to teach the history but to merely address a few points to an already pertinent issue. A coalition government, (yes that’s right) was installed upon the 1980 election with many unique and interesting faces. Parliament even had 30 seats reserved for whites only. Gukurahundi took place in the early 1980s lest we forget. However we are yet to resolve this particular thorny issue – and this we must if we are to move forward as a nation. Zimbabwe seemed to prosper both socially and economically. An economic meltdown ensued in the late 1990s. The reasons for the economic demise are always being debated. However RGM remained in charge throughout all this and even after the much debated 2008 elections. That tells me something about the situation and even more about the man himself. He’s not fool and I believe there stands a political genius.
People often want or perhaps prefer to completely separate Zimbabwe today with a pre-Independent Zimbabwe. Let us never forget how difficult it is to replace a revolutionary party like ZANU-PF. Ask the DA or COPE in South Africa. I’m sure they both have some interesting stories to share. People often forget how historically connected the army, the air force and ZANU are. We often brush aside the work being done by the Central Intelligence Organisation (CIO) and more importantly who their direct boss is. Perhaps we don’t fully appreciate our history and I’m referring to pre-1900s or thereabouts. We should perhaps look at the relationship between the tribes (both the Shona and Ndebele) and the white settlers. As I continue to study our rich history, I am starting to understand why relations between the Shona and the Ndebele are the way they are right now.
I believe our history has a massive effect on the current political landscape. There are those amongst us who had hoped that with the economic demise in the last 10 to 12 years would force the Zimbabwean to revolt in the Tunisian style and push RGM out of office. No! What some of us didn’t quite appreciate about the majority of the population in Zimbabwe is that revolting similar to both Tunisia and Egypt just wouldn’t work. Personally I just can’t see it happening for a number of reasons. Not that I think we are too passive (and perhaps we are) but instead we would rather find a way of ‘making a plan’ with every difficult situation thrown at us. It was once suggested to me that were the Ndebele tribe the majority in Zimbabwe, then we might be looking at a totally different situation. Who knows?
I recall reading a tweet from @GarethCliff a few months ago, which read:
Are Zimbabweans cowardly or so traumatised by Mugabe that revolution there is impossible? I mean this with respect
Without wasting time I responded with this:
Interesting tweet re Zim & revolution but I kindly urge you to visit the history of Zimbabwe B4 tweeting i.e. holistic approach
Essentially what I was attempting to point out to Gareth was for him to look at our Zimbabwean history before tweeting like that. I should have taken this conversation further than I did that day and perhaps this is my opportunity. There are still some issues which can explain why the old man still stands and I hope that I have addressed some of those issues. We could start with the opposition for example. I grew up reciting ‘united we stand, divided we fall’. Without going into the reasons and the multitude of theories but, the MDC split for some reason. How can they mount a proper challenge whilst they are divided like this I often wonder? We mustn’t ignore how effective the ZPF machinery is and naturally how difficult it is to remove a revolutionary party. Morgan Tsvangirai (MT) has offered ‘change’ to as an alternative. There are people who want that ‘change’ to be quantified. There are also people who question Tsvangirai’s strategies and whether they are in fact his own. All these things have some bearing on this leadership battle I believe. We also have to remember (just in case we forgot) that RGM has supporters who support and agree with him (that ideology angle again) and not necessary his ministerial team. There are many moderate voters who would still vote for RGM assuming age wasn’t an issue for example. I can’t give you numbers but I know these kinds of people exist. This is part of the history I was referring to and there’s more to it than this.
I believe that the battle for Zimbabwe continues. Those who are working hard within ZPF to take over will indeed find their own set of challenges. With the death of Retired General Mujuru and the effects of the wikileaks episode, it seems that the leadership battle is further for reaching a conclusion. Whilst those who battle continue to do so, I would suggest that we also pay closer attention to other contenders like Oppah Muchinguri – Zanu-PF Women’s League boss, Sydney Sekeramayi – Minister of State Security and the young turks like Savior Kasukuwere – Minister of Youth Development, Indigenisation and Empowerment and Walter Mzembi – Minister of Tourism & Hospitality. I don’t believe we have seen the last scene of jockeying in this seemingly never ending battle.
FreedomTrapped
24/03/2012
A very insightfull look at the positive side of our leadership given here, one that would make anyone proud to be Zimbabwean and to have lived through the era of it all happening. But I shudder what a similar level of scrutiny on the negative side of the subject RGM would reveal and whether at the end of the day the the good would outweigh the bad. What I am convinced about however I have tried to outline below. Rather lengthy for a comment and perhaps I should have used my own blog space but I hope you wont mind…
The main reasons why I THINK revolt will not occur in Zimbabwe are:
1. Because Zims are well aware of the might and proficiency of the military machine and what it is capable and prepared to do. The British, for example, are only just now considering the use of water canons to control riots. they can get some advice and training from Zim.
2. Zimbabwe inherited some of the best infrastructure from the colonial regime and the people worked so hard to rebuild schools and hospitals, and clinics in rural areas after Independence and they are too educated (thanks to RGM) to let all that go to ruins in a revolution just to get rid of one person even if it was under his watch that wealth and wisdom was grown.
All zims acknowledge and credit RGM for the land based ideology and what it has achieved, but they did not and still do not endorse the costs in human life and national isolation recklessly brought about by the lack of control (by RGM) of the foot soldiers employed in its implementation, if not encouraged by the same.
Zimbabwe’s history, PRE AND POST INDEPENDENCE, is too littered with murders, disappearances, open, obvious, and deliberate torcher, persecution and harassment of public political and even business figures which has gone unquestioned and unexplained yet even primary school kids can figure out who is doing what to who.
ZIMBABWEANS HAVE SEEN IT ALL, even before they contemplate going into revolution. Their revolution was aborted a long time ago. They are a weary people at the mercy of their own supposed protectors.
Why jump into the fire with your eyes wide open.
The current leadership (all coalition partners included) know that the people have already read through their greedy minds and none of them is worth loosing another life for, be it to remove from power or to install as the new rulers.
At the moment ONLY GOD HAS HIS SWORD RAISED HIGH. He has more than enough reasons to strike, as he always does, for non of us is perfect, but for the people you speak about in your article, even they are surprised they still live. Am alittle disapointed you even count some of them as future contenders for RGM’s office. But then again, they are all we v got in the game because THEY have made sure there is nobody else.
tendayi chiro
26/03/2012
There is an old belief in Boxing that is known by every boxer and fans, that is, in order to depose a sitting champion one has to do it convincingly, short of knowcking him out. Close points or split decision goes in favour of the incumbent.
Now going back to why they has not been a revolution in Zimbabwe, the answer is that the conditions for a revolution are not there. ZPF and Mugabe have significant support. MDC has more support, but not enough to remove Mugabe. If MDC wins by 80%, ZPF and Mugabe will have serious problems, because the people will remove them. That is so despite the grip on the secuty sector, and infact those with a tight grip of the security sector fall faster than those with say 40% support of the electorate. The security is well known for defecting.
Patruck
26/03/2012
Revolution is an intoxicating theory but a painfully reality. Whilst many have celebrated the Arab spring I continue to question its long term effect on democratic ideals! As for the old mans longevity I believe it’s simply down to clarity of thought and not some supernatural inexplicable. The man is Well known for taking his time when making strategic decisions and on matters of ideology rightly or wrongly he is clear on what he believes in and sticks by that ideology come hell or high water. Perhaps all pretenders to the throne both within and outside ZPF should take but that 1 leaf from his book!
As for his legacy only time will tell however I will hasten to add that the good and bad that men do run parallel to one another and do not supersede each other, when his story comes to an end it’ll be to each of us to decide!
Sir Nigel
29/03/2012
Thank you very much for taking the time to read the scribe. Appreciate your thoughts and feedback. I hope that our combined conversations here have added some value to other readers.
Sammy
18/08/2013
“He’s not fool and I believe there stands a political genius”- That statement is going to come and bite you in the future
The writer has obviously been charmed by the murderous dictator. Here is what he should of said instead of the above statement.
” He stands a man who before the country was called Zimbabwe had decided to eliminate anybody that stands to threaten his rise to power – we all know whom those individuals are. To this day anybody who dares to challenge him will mysteriously have a car accident while he is out of the country” Lets take a look at the way the gvt is set up right now.It is set up in such a way that he calls all the shots from Supreme court ,Police ,CIO, Army, and Media., they all serve one purpose and that is to eliminate anybody that dares to think of being a leader other than him.
Judging from your article you seem like an educated guy but I fail to see why you would use the word genius-Usually I personally associate a genius with great positive things
A genius is a person who displays exceptional intellectual ability, creativity, or originality, typically to a degree that is associated with the achievement of unprecedented insight. There is no scientifically precise definition of genius, and the question of whether the notion itself has any real meaning has long been a subject of debate. The term is used in various ways: to refer to a particular aspect of an individual, or the individual in his or her entirety; to a scholar in many subjects (e.g. Gottfried Wilhelm Leibniz or Leonardo da Vinci) [1] or a scholar in a single subject (e.g., Albert Einstein or Charles Darwin). Research into what causes genius and mastery is still in its early stages, and psychology offers relevant insights.
Creativity-Creativity is a phenomenon whereby something new and valuable is created (such as an idea, a joke, a literary work, a painting or musical composition, a solution, an invention etc.). It is also the qualitative impetus behind any given act of creation, and it is generally perceived to be associated with intelligence and cognition.
Maybe you might have a point for calling him a genius, after all he came up with some new ideas on how to take a well functioning country and bring it to its knees, how to destroy infrastructure and not maintain it,how to make history by having the world highest inflation,how to run educated people out of the country,civil war,corruption,erratic power supply,water problems,sewage problems. the list goes on.
Mr writer please take your side and stop trying to act like you are neutral.
You worship the man, how can you write an article telling us why is still stands.
Simple answer- destroy anybody that does not agree with him by any necessary means.
We need you to write articles on how to improve the country, not glorying this dictator, do you think people who lost their loved ones by this man feel the same way you do, I guess if it don’t affect you , it does not matter. right?
Genius – My A##
FreedomTrapped
18/08/2013
I think it would help if someone, everyone, copied and pasted your (Sammy’s) last paragraph in the comment above over and over and over again.
Sir Nigel
18/08/2013
Thank you very much for taking the time to respond to this blog.